Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 015 | 27 | 08 | 230 |
| MTL | 210 | 316 | 27 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:18MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Travis Moen, Andrei Kostitsyn · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:32MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 9:08CARAnton BabchukPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:21CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:34MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 15:34MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P2 18:09MTLBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.32 xG2–5
- P3 17:43MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
- P3 18:35MTLMathieu DarchePPAssists: Scott Gomez, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–7
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:38MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:59MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:08CARPatrick Dwyer: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:22MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:07MTLMaxim Lapierre: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:06CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 8:53MTLMichael Cammalleri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00CARSergei Samsonov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:37CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P3 13:18MTLScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:36MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:36CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:36CARTom Kostopoulos: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:36CARTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:36CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36MTLMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jokinen – Matsumoto3:45
xG 0.32–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Dwyer2:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Matsumoto – Tlusty2:59
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter6:33
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Babchuk4:19
xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain8:31
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec8:12
xG 0.68–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Lapierre9:00
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Halpern – Darche – Pouliot7:21
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Pyatt – Eller8:00
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Gorges10:18
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Spacek12:03
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Gill – Subban10:47
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).