Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 17 | 311 | 428 |
| ATL | 112 | 07 | 114 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41ATLBrent SopelAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 13:22PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Arron Asham, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Deryk Engelland, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 4:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 10:45ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Evander Kane, Alexander Burmistrov · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 18:58PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:21ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:21PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:51PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P1 11:59ATLEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P1 12:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:02ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:17PITPaul Martin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:54ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P2 19:57PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 19:57ATLBen Eager: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:57PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:51ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:00PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P3 6:31ATLEvander Kane: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Cooke – Malkin4:46
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Adams – Rupp – Talbot4:32
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:36
xG 0.21–0.57 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:02
xG 0.05–0.48 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Michalek2:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang2:15
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang10:47
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors8:38
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Stewart – Little – Kane3:45
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Eager – Stewart – Little2:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Eager2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:08
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey8:04
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:06
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).