Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 113 | 213 | 04 | 02 | 0 | 332 |
| NSH | 09 | 29 | 110 | 05 | 1 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07CHIJack SkilleAssists: Brian Campbell, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:37NSHShane O'BrienAssists: Marcel Goc, Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:19NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Martin Erat, J-P Dumont · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:51CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Patrick Sharp, Fernando Pisani · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 9:10CHIJack SkilleAssists: Jake Dowell · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 10:23NSHCody FransonAssists: Francis Bouillon, Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
Penalties (15)
- P2 0:55NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:55CHIMarty Turco: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:48CHINick Boynton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16NSHFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:16CHINick Boynton: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:20NSHCody Franson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:58NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:39NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:39NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:39CHIBryan Bickell: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:26NSHPatric Hornqvist: Charging2 min
- P3 13:57CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:44CHIDave Bolland: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:44NSHSteve Sullivan: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:29CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Bolland – Kane10:43
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Sharp – Brouwer – Toews11:45
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Bickell – Dowell – Skille10:06
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Pisani – Kopecky – Stalberg6:34
xG 0.02–0.20 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoynton – Keith13:19
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson17:17
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Cullimore – Campbell12:03
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Smithson – Kostitsyn – Wilson4:40
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist14:03
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Erat – Goc – Wilson4:08
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dumont – Legwand – Ward9:18
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson9:20
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Franson2:56
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Klein – O'Brien2:14
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).