Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 3, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 19 | 118 | 338 |
| PHX | 110 | 310 | 17 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:10STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:39PHXRay WhitneyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 7:52STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P2 10:28PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 15:03PHXMartin HanzalPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:12STLBrad BoyesAssists: Andy McDonald, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:36PHXRay WhitneyENAssists: Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:21STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:59STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:09PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:09STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:50PHXAdrian Aucoin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31STLTy Conklin: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:20STLNathan Oystrick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00PHXScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:37STLErik Johnson: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – D'Agostini – Berglund13:00
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Janssen – Crombeen – Porter3:02
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Sobotka11:35
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – McClement – Drazenovic7:35
xG 0.10–0.57 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Johnson14:41
xG 1.03–0.10 (91%)attempts 26–3goals 1–0
- Brewer – Pietrangelo2:27
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo13:53
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:36
xG 0.85–0.67 (56%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Belanger – Stempniak – Wolski11:33
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski5:24
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Upshall – Korpikoski8:36
xG 0.05–0.54 (9%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stafford – Lepisto8:52
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle16:28
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski19:19
xG 0.60–1.02 (37%)attempts 10–29goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).