Sun, Nov 14, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Rangers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 29 | 08 | 221 |
| NYR | 17 | 416 | 38 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Erik Christensen, Alex Frolov · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 2:45EDMRyan JonesAssists: Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 3:13EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Theo Peckham, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 7:12NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Erik Christensen · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 7:37NYRBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Brandon Prust · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 13:17NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Derek Stepan, Sean Avery · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 19:55NYRAlex FrolovAssists: Erik Christensen, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 12:14NYRAlex FrolovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 12:59NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Derek Stepan, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
- P3 14:22NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Alex Frolov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–8
Penalties (26)
- P1 10:10NYRSteve Eminger: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:30NYRArtem Anisimov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:07EDMLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:28NYRDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:28EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:07NYRMarian Gaborik: Interference2 min
- P3 8:46NYRDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:46EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18EDMLadislav Smid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:18EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18EDMTheo Peckham: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:18EDMColin Fraser: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrian Boyle: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrandon Prust: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18EDMZack Stortini: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:54EDMAndrew Cogliano: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Jones – Eberle2:16
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Eberle7:07
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–2
- Fraser – Stortini – MacIntyre3:00
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall14:14
xG 0.18–1.12 (14%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Foster – Smid11:43
xG 0.94–0.93 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Foster – Whitney3:15
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Gilbert13:08
xG 0.43–1.05 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–4
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov13:12
xG 1.19–0.08 (94%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Frolov – Christensen11:36
xG 1.20–0.46 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 5–0
- Avery – Boogaard – Stepan3:21
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:42
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto13:35
xG 1.38–0.24 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 3–0
- Staal – Girardi16:18
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Sauer – Gilroy11:08
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).