Sun, Nov 14, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Atlanta Thrashers 4, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 17 | 313 | 07 | 427 |
| WSH | 312 | 18 | 213 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tyler Sloan · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:43WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Eric Fehr, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 13:14ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Deflected, 0.41 xG1–2
- P1 18:57WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Sloan · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 1:12ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 2:23WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Mike Green, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
- P2 3:07ATLBryan LittleAssists: Evander Kane, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P2 9:00ATLBryan LittleSHAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 13:11WSHJohn ErskineGWGAssists: David Steckel, Matt Bradley · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 19:23WSHDavid SteckelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:44ATLBen Eager: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:19WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:31WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:19WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:19ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:19ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:23ATLBrent Sopel: Holding2 min
- P2 16:23ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:23WSHMike Green: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov3:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors12:23
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Eager3:41
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov3:16
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:25
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 21–15goals 2–1
- Sopel – Hainsey11:25
xG 0.09–0.63 (12%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Oduya – Bogosian18:37
xG 0.10–0.72 (13%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Hendricks – Steckel11:07
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Fehr9:31
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Johansson10:43
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:11
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green17:26
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 21–13goals 2–1
- Erskine – Sloan11:58
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:30
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).