Mon, Nov 15, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 325 |
| PIT | 012 | 012 | 214 | 01 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:16NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 17:29PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 18:07PITMatt CookeAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:34NYRMarc StaalSHAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 3:38NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:52NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:55NYRRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:55PITMike Comrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:24NYRSean Avery: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:24PITMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:47NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P2 17:15NYRMarc Staal: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:19NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:32NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:32PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:23NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P3 18:07NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Avery – Christensen2:48
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov3:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Frolov – Stepan5:19
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov7:28
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy6:33
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Eminger – Staal14:55
xG 0.32–0.70 (32%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Girardi – Del Zotto12:24
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 8–26goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Cooke – Malkin6:00
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:09
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Conner – Letestu5:54
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Comrie3:43
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Goligoski10:35
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Orpik – Letang13:15
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek12:51
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).