Mon, Nov 15, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 18 | 114 | 335 |
| SJS | 210 | 113 | 311 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:33LAKScott ParseAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 18:05SJSRyane CloweAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:20SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Jamie McGinn, Devin Setoguchi · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 10:35SJSScott NicholAssists: Derek Joslin, Jamal Mayers · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:35LAKRyan SmythAssists: Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 2:39SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 7:06LAKJarret StollAssists: Rob Scuderi, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 7:49SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Kent Huskins, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:08SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:09SJSDerek Joslin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:33SJSDan Boyle: Clipping2 min
- P2 12:33LAKBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:49SJSJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:30LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:01LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:14LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll13:13
xG 1.04–0.88 (54%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
- Brown – Parse – Kopitar8:24
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Handzus – Simmonds – Clifford2:03
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford5:05
xG 0.01–0.02 (37%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty15:01
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Johnson – Doughty2:21
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Johnson15:22
xG 0.70–1.27 (36%)attempts 19–20goals 0–3
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Setoguchi – McGinn9:10
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley14:10
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Clowe – Pavelski – Couture12:59
xG 1.03–0.95 (52%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Mayers – Nichol – McLaren5:56
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers17:38
xG 1.75–0.77 (70%)attempts 27–12goals 2–1
- Boyle – Vlasic20:33
xG 0.85–0.86 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Wallin – Joslin10:42
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).