Tue, Nov 16, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 16 | 012 | 127 |
| DAL | 17 | 011 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43DALSteve OttPPAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 8:29ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 8:24DALBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, James Neal · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:09DALNicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:03ANAJason Blake: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:29DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P1 13:48ANAPaul Mara: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:25DALNicklas Grossmann: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:25ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14DALMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 1:53DALBrandon Segal: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:49DALNicklas Grossmann: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:14DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:34DALTom Wandell: Delaying game2 min
- P2 17:29ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:10ANATeemu Selanne: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:50ANATeemu Selanne: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:36ANAJason Blake: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake6:57
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan6:23
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ryan – Bonino2:28
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Marchant – Bonino – Palmieri2:19
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky13:19
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lilja – Sbisa8:35
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Mara – Sbisa2:34
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Benn8:29
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal9:19
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Segal8:05
xG 0.26–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell2:06
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen8:02
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann10:58
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Fistric11:17
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).