Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 27 | 15 | 320 |
| NYR | 08 | 112 | 116 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:10NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 11:06BOSMilan LucicAssists: Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 16:35BOSTyler SeguinUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:10BOSMark RecchiGWGAssists: Mark Stuart, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 5:26NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:17NYRDan Girardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:15NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09BOSNathan Horton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 8:08NYRDerek Stepan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:52BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:57BOSAndrew Ference: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:13BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Bergeron – Lucic10:52
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Thornton – Paille – Seguin6:36
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Recchi – Wheeler – Caron8:02
xG 0.10–0.64 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Ryder – Campbell – Marchand12:13
xG 0.28–0.92 (23%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Stuart10:10
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Hunwick – McQuaid6:39
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:26
xG 0.03–0.22 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Frolov – Stepan4:03
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:08
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Frolov – Christensen7:47
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Avery – Boogaard – Stepan4:16
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto13:43
xG 1.28–0.38 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Sauer – Gilroy12:07
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Girardi17:05
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).