Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 3, Detroit Red Wings 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 213 | 012 | 336 |
| DET | 18 | 29 | 414 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05DETDrew MillerAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:37STLBrad BoyesAssists: Andy McDonald, David Backes · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:16STLBrad WinchesterPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Patrik Berglund · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 13:42DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brian Rafalski, Drew Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:30DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Brian Rafalski · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 17:07STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 12:26DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Mike Modano, Ruslan Salei · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 13:12DETHenrik ZetterbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 14:30DETBrad StuartPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG3–6
- P3 15:40DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:16STLT.J. Hensick: Holding2 min
- P1 18:35DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:12DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P3 4:17STLMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:23STLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:06STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:55DETRuslan Salei: Holding2 min
- P3 19:57STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:57DETJimmy Howard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – D'Agostini – Berglund9:12
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes12:36
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- McClement – Crombeen – Sobotka10:48
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Winchester – Janssen – Hensick3:29
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo16:26
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Strachan – Nikitin10:17
xG 0.43–0.51 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–3
- Brewer – Johnson17:30
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 13–22goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Helm4:44
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg7:40
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Filppula – Hudler – Abdelkader2:54
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Modano – Bertuzzi – Cleary11:14
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson13:25
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Salei – Kronwall14:14
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart14:06
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).