Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 215 | 015 | 00 | 343 |
| COL | 19 | 03 | 28 | 12 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.39 xG1–0
- P1 18:27COLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:09SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:14SJSMike MooreAssists: Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 8:38COLChris StewartAssists: John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 14:49COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart, David Jones · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:07COLKevin PorterGWGAssists: Scott Hannan · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:00COLBrandon Yip: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:13COLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:46COLKevin Porter: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:49SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:27SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P2 7:04COLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Couture12:18
xG 1.38–0.22 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley10:09
xG 0.54–0.23 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy6:05
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Setoguchi – McGinn10:21
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers12:27
xG 1.29–0.55 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Boyle – Moore9:00
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Boyle – Vlasic6:24
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Stewart12:36
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly3:47
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Winnik – Duchene4:11
xG 0.03–0.06 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene6:16
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Shattenkirk12:45
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne14:06
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Foote – Wilson14:42
xG 0.75–1.76 (30%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).