Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 215 | 17 | 331 |
| CGY | 016 | 09 | 115 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:13PHXWojtek WolskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:33PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P3 16:08CGYRene BourqueAssists: Brendan Morrison, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 19:52PHXLauri KorpikoskiENAssists: Martin Hanzal, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:42PHXDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
- P1 8:19PHXKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:57CGYCurtis Glencross: Interference2 min
- P1 14:43CGYJarome Iginla: Holding2 min
- P2 7:55CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:22CGYCurtis Glencross: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:22PHXDerek Morris: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:25CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:51CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:09CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32CGYOlli Jokinen: Cross checking5 min
- P3 10:32PHXWojtek Wolski: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:32CGYOlli Jokinen: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:32CGYNiklas Hagman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:03PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:53PHXVernon Fiddler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:53CGYSteve Staios: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Upshall – Korpikoski8:01
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Bissonnette – Turris3:24
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Belanger – Stempniak – Wolski9:39
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal9:22
xG 0.26–0.65 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yonkman – Schlemko3:27
xG 0.12–0.23 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:31
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski12:57
xG 0.22–1.02 (18%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan7:16
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Moss – Glencross – Backlund2:02
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Bourque3:22
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque3:32
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano3:28
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Staios – Giordano2:20
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staios – Mikkelson7:33
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).