Thu, Nov 18, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 0, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 013 | 012 | 041 |
| BOS | 111 | 015 | 314 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 14:42BOSMilan LucicAssists: Nathan Horton, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 14:57BOSMilan LucicAssists: Nathan Horton, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 16:06BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:59BOSBrad Marchand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:31FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:31BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:13BOSBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:23BOSMark Recchi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:47BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:08FLABryan McCabe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:27BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:08FLACory Stillman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestOlesz – Booth – Santorelli4:13
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Matthias2:42
xG 0.10–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Booth – Matthias2:09
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik5:03
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison12:29
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- McCabe – Wideman2:23
xG 0.06–0.12 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Garrison2:12
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Bergeron – Lucic8:58
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Ryder – Campbell – Marchand7:07
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Paille – Seguin5:11
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Recchi – Wheeler – Caron10:05
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Stuart8:10
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference13:21
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 11–18goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick6:09
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).