Thu, Nov 18, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 4, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 211 | 112 | 01 | 439 |
| DAL | 214 | 012 | 212 | 13 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:30DALJames NealPPAssists: Brad Richards, Stephane Robidas · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 18:41SJSScott NicholAssists: Jason Demers, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:21SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryane Clowe · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 12:37SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 6:27SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Jamie McGinn, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 17:25DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Deflected, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 17:54DALMike RibeiroAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 2:52DALMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:16SJSDerek Joslin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:51DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:51SJSMike Moore: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28DALAdam Burish: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:04DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:19SJSDevin Setoguchi: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:40SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:56SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:56DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:14DALBrad Richards: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:14SJSTorrey Mitchell: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:50SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37DALJames Neal: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:18SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Couture7:06
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 2–2
- Mayers – Clowe – Couture2:19
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Mitchell – McGinn2:18
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McLaren3:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers14:40
xG 1.06–0.98 (52%)attempts 21–20goals 1–2
- Boyle – Huskins2:53
xG 0.22–0.22 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic2:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal10:37
xG 0.99–0.27 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn3:01
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell3:22
xG 0.17–0.10 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell2:06
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann13:32
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Robidas – Niskanen3:46
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen7:07
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).