Fri, Nov 19, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 16 | 111 | 05 | 0 | 434 |
| PIT | 210 | 112 | 111 | 03 | 2 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42CARBrandon SutterAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:55PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 11:15PITTyler KennedyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 15:46CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Ian White · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 8:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:19CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jamie McBain, Patrick Dwyer · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 9:19PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 19:08CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Snap, 0.10 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:38CARIan White: Holding2 min
- P1 17:14PITDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:46PITDeryk Engelland: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33CARJussi Jokinen: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – LaRose – Staal16:14
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- O'Sullivan – Bodie – Matsumoto3:34
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter10:52
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 3–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Sutter2:07
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White19:32
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Harrison – McBain9:15
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Corvo – Gleason16:37
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Conner – Letestu9:22
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Malkin5:00
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Rupp2:22
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin4:37
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek15:10
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 23–9goals 1–1
- Engelland – Goligoski10:59
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Orpik – Letang16:52
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).