Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 13 | 112 | 14 | 427 |
| DET | 09 | 118 | 212 | 05 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16MINBrent BurnsAssists: Martin Havlat, Casey Wellman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:25MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Nick Schultz, Greg Zanon · Snap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 19:26DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 2:17DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:55DETPatrick EavesAssists: Brian Rafalski, Justin Abdelkader · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:37MINMikko KoivuAssists: Nick Schultz, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 4:18MINJohn MaddenGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:13DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:57DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:02MINCasey Wellman: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:37MINEric Nystrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:58MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35MINMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33DETNicklas Lidstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Modano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu10:59
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Earl – Staubitz2:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – Wellman7:17
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
- Madden – Havlat – Nystrom8:36
xG 0.01–0.48 (3%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Zanon2:37
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Scandella10:07
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Burns – Barker15:25
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Abdelkader – Helm4:33
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg5:36
xG 0.22–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Eaves – Helm2:46
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Abdelkader3:55
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson12:41
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Salei – Kronwall15:15
xG 0.55–0.13 (80%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart16:11
xG 0.54–0.85 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).