Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 03 | 18 | 220 |
| STL | 010 | 311 | 212 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18OTTMike FisherAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:13STLBrad BoyesPPAssists: David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:04STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: David Backes, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:39STLEric BrewerGWGAssists: T.J. Hensick, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 8:41STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 14:05STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 15:41OTTJesse WinchesterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:50STLVladimir Sobotka: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:04OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:42OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:11OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:50OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51STLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 17:23STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:31STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P3 12:03OTTMike Fisher: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:43OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:17OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Foligno – Winchester6:36
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek7:51
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly6:15
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin10:52
xG 0.31–0.79 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Carkner2:50
xG 0.16–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Carkner – Campoli10:38
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kuba – Karlsson7:35
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Backes8:18
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Steen – D'Agostini – Berglund3:31
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Winchester – D'Agostini – Berglund5:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Winchester – McClement – Crombeen2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson12:11
xG 0.82–0.40 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Brewer – Pietrangelo12:17
xG 0.46–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Strachan – Nikitin9:45
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).