Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 09 | 18 | 126 |
| COL | 08 | 410 | 18 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:04COLDavid JonesAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 7:21COLKevin PorterGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:27COLMatt DucheneAssists: Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 15:07COLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Scott Hannan, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.01 xG0–4
- P3 4:58COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Greg Mauldin · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 6:03NYRDerek StepanAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:15NYRDan Girardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:22COLBrandon Yip: Interference2 min
- P2 9:15COLGreg Mauldin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:59COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P3 9:41COLDavid Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:58NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:58COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:58
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Avery – Boyle2:02
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Frolov – Stepan10:33
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- White – Avery – Christensen8:12
xG 0.16–0.88 (16%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Eminger – Sauer7:41
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi9:36
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Sauer – Gilroy6:44
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Stewart11:55
xG 1.02–0.23 (82%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Mauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly11:31
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Porter – Duchene11:11
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Dupuis – Yip – McLeod6:49
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Shattenkirk16:15
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 10–11goals 3–0
- Foote – Wilson11:34
xG 0.76–0.29 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Liles – O'Byrne13:30
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).