Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 08 | 116 | 233 |
| CGY | 218 | 212 | 36 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12CHIJack SkilleAssists: Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:52CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Tim Jackman · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:28CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Niklas Hagman · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 10:01CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 18:42CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, David Moss · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 16:29CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: Curtis Glencross, David Moss · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–5
- P3 18:10CGYJarome IginlaUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–6
- P3 19:01CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Brendan Morrison · Snap, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 19:40CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Brian Campbell, Fernando Pisani · Slap, 0.02 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:16CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:08CHIDave Bolland: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:39CGYNiklas Hagman: Kneeing2 min
- P1 18:52CHITomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:28CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:51CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:51CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:52CHIFernando Pisani: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:28CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Bolland6:34
xG 0.24–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp2:42
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pisani – Brouwer – Skille2:36
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Skille2:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson11:07
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 17–3goals 0–2
- Boynton – Keith8:14
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Boynton – Campbell2:12
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Moss – Glencross6:07
xG 0.63–0.23 (74%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Hagman – Bourque – Backlund9:31
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Moss – Glencross2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Conroy – Kostopoulos – Jackman7:36
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester17:43
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson11:09
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Giordano11:05
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).