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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Phoenix Coyotes 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX011213112063442
EDM1521505052330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:41EDMAles HemskySHAssists: Ryan Whitney · Deflected, 0.39 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:00EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Deflected, 0.35 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:59EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P2 13:13PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:36PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Ray Whitney, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:25PHXWojtek WolskiAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
  2. 2. PHX Ray Whitney stopped
  3. 3. EDM Shawn Horcoff stopped
  4. 4. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
  5. 5. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
  6. 6. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  7. 7. EDM Taylor Hall scored
  8. 8. PHX Lee Stempniak scored
  9. 9. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  10. 10. PHX Eric Belanger scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 7:36EDMAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
  2. P1 10:02EDMAndrew Cogliano: Boarding5 min
  3. P1 10:02EDMAndrew Cogliano: Game misconduct10 min
  4. P2 3:06PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:57PHXKeith Yandle: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 9:57PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 13:41EDMRyan Whitney: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 12:23PHXTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 15:17EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 15:17EDMColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 15:17PHXScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 15:17PHXNolan Yonkman: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
47% to win53% to win
← PHX attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXEDM
42Shots on goal30
2.3Expected goals4.2
58Shot attempts55
38Faceoffs won30
3Power plays4
12Penalty minutes23
19Hits18
11Blocked shots9
13Giveaways17
12Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestFiddler – Upshall – Korpikoski3:54

    xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  2. Belanger – Stempniak – Wolski7:40

    xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Pyatt – Fiddler – Upshall2:45

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  4. Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak3:36

    xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestYonkman – Schlemko10:26

    xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0

  2. Aucoin – Jovanovski12:23

    xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0

  3. Morris – Yandle18:58

    xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestHemsky – Penner – Gagner11:48

    xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0

  2. Jones – Cogliano – Paajarvi2:29

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0

  3. Fraser – Stortini – Jones2:48

    xG 0.01–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Horcoff – Eberle – Hall11:20

    xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Foster – Belle8:54

    xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

  2. Gilbert – Whitney16:48

    xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0

  3. Vandermeer – Peckham12:38

    xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 4.2 xGPHX 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #120 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).