Fri, Nov 19, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 316 | 03 | 429 |
| ANA | 013 | 212 | 125 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:02CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:17ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 5:01ANABobby RyanSHAssists: Todd Marchant · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:26CBJChris ClarkPPAssists: Mike Commodore, Nikita Filatov · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 13:48CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Andrew Murray · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P2 16:56CBJMike CommodoreGWGAssists: Kyle Wilson, Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 7:22ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:27ANAJosh Green: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:31CBJJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:42CBJMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:19CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 4:19ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:17ANATeemu Selanne: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:23CBJJan Hejda: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:43CBJChris Clark: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CBJAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClark – Pahlsson – Dorsett6:03
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Filatov10:23
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Wilson – Boll4:47
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Murray5:44
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Tyutin12:26
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot17:29
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 7–23goals 1–1
- Hejda – Russell10:41
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake11:29
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Bonino3:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Blake – Palmieri2:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Green – Parros – Carter5:32
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky12:17
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:43
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lydman – Mara2:26
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).