Sat, Nov 20, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 216 | 27 | 02 | 1 | 535 |
| WSH | 19 | 013 | 313 | 02 | 0 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jason Chimera, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:11PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 17:47PHIMike RichardsAssists: Scott Hartnell, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 9:40PHIJeff CarterAssists: Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 11:03WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–2
- P3 11:31WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Matt Hendricks, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–3
- P3 13:53PHIAndreas NodlAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mike Richards · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:21WSHEric FehrPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Alexander Semin · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 2. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. PHI Daniel Brière scored
- 5. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:56PHISean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:41WSHKarl Alzner: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:47WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:02PHIVille Leino: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:21WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:39PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:50WSHBrooks Laich: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:43WSHEric Fehr: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:01PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:03PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:31WSHMatt Bradley: Interference2 min
- P3 16:53WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:13PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:12WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk6:44
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino6:50
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Nodl3:19
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – van Riemsdyk2:24
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle3:35
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle8:02
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Pronger – Timonen4:38
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:59
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Fehr7:58
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Bradley – Chimera – Johansson7:09
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Gordon5:44
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green12:46
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Erskine – Sloan8:57
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:12
xG 0.61–0.79 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).