Sat, Nov 20, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 110 | 08 | 04 | 2 | 227 |
| CAR | 13 | 09 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:53NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
- 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly scored
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
- 5. CAR Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
- 6. NSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:37NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55NSHFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:34CARSergei Samsonov: Interference2 min
- P3 1:18NSHJordin Tootoo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:47CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:22CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Ruutu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Tootoo9:47
xG 0.90–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Wilson6:42
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Dumont – Erat – Goc11:27
xG 0.42–0.73 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist12:17
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Weber9:02
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson6:36
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Weber – Sulzer10:19
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Sutter10:39
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- O'Sullivan – Matsumoto – Tlusty5:21
xG 0.09–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner10:45
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal13:43
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason17:10
xG 1.37–0.59 (70%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Harrison – McBain9:07
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – White17:38
xG 0.53–0.87 (38%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).