Sat, Nov 20, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 317 | 24 | 530 |
| MIN | 010 | 04 | 214 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:50NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Matt Gilroy, Michael Sauer · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 14:24NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 19:00NYRAlex FrolovGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Marian Gaborik · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 4:53NYRBrandon DubinskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 12:48MINMatt CullenSHAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 14:08NYRRuslan FedotenkoPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Brandon Prust · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 15:11MINMartin HavlatAssists: John Madden · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:06MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P1 12:26NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:56MINMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:35MINBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:29MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:51NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:09NYRSteve Eminger: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:08MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:45NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Frolov – Stepan8:34
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust11:04
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Christensen – Dubinsky – Callahan7:31
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov4:14
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy11:01
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi13:47
xG 0.71–0.65 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto10:23
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Havlat – Nystrom9:56
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:59
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – Wellman8:00
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Earl – Staubitz7:16
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Barker11:41
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Schultz – Barker2:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns2:59
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).