Sat, Nov 20, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 212 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 426 |
| DAL | 08 | 29 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:02COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 5:30COLDavid JonesAssists: Chris Stewart, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 13:33DALAdam BurishAssists: James Neal, Kari Lehtonen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 13:56DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 10:02DALJames NealPPAssists: Steve Ott, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 3. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 4. COL Chris Stewart scored
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
- 6. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 7. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 8. COL David Jones stopped
- 9. DAL Steve Ott stopped
- 10. COL Kevin Porter scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:51DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:11COLDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:51DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:25DALBrian Sutherby: Holding2 min
- P1 19:22DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:22DALBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:49COLDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:29COLChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:15COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 4:21COLScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Yip – McLeod2:09
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart10:44
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Hejduk – Porter – Duchene9:26
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly2:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne10:15
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hannan – O'Byrne2:38
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Hannan – Shattenkirk16:02
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson9:04
xG 0.67–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal4:58
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell5:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Barch – Ott – Burish3:59
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann12:33
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric9:25
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Skrastins – Fistric4:31
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).