Sun, Nov 21, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New York Islanders 1, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 115 | 08 | 00 | 129 |
| ATL | 014 | 010 | 110 | 11 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:47NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Radek Martinek · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–0
- P3 2:25ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:30ATLDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:02NYIDylan Reese: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:21ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:39NYIMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:14ATLRich Peverley: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:08ATLRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41NYIJohn Tavares: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:12NYIZenon Konopka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:47ATLAnthony Stewart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchremp – Comeau – Bailey9:27
xG 0.36–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin5:07
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:01
xG 0.65–0.72 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Hunter – Nielsen – Grabner10:03
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Reese4:21
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Martinek – Wisniewski5:47
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Reese3:38
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Thorburn – Slater6:58
xG 0.64–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov8:54
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors11:04
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane10:34
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian15:18
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey13:31
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:00
xG 0.64–0.85 (43%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).