Mon, Nov 22, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Dallas Stars 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 19 | 07 | 122 |
| TOR | 17 | 210 | 19 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 14:05TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 15:31DALBrad RichardsAssists: Steve Ott, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:07TORTyler BozakAssists: Nazem Kadri, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:49TORKris VersteegENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:26TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:26DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:24DALJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:16TORColton Orr: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:11TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wandell won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Barch – Petersen – Ott4:29
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Ott – Eriksson2:57
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal13:19
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish2:11
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Niskanen2:43
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric5:21
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Robidas – Niskanen6:14
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin14:12
xG 0.80–0.21 (80%)attempts 20–17goals 2–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Kadri11:37
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Orr – Mitchell – Brown4:10
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Versteeg14:46
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn17:19
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 24–20goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Aulie – Gunnarsson6:40
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).