Mon, Nov 22, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 111 | 015 | 132 |
| NYR | 08 | 28 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:08NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 5:16CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:41NYRDan GirardiPPGWGAssists: Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:14CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P1 7:10NYRMichael Sauer: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:10CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:13CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:13NYRMichael Sauer: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:06NYRMichael Sauer: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:06CGYStefan Meyer: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:12NYRRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:27CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:14NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan8:43
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Meyer6:41
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Morrison – Moss – Glencross8:48
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Hagman – Bourque – Backlund11:27
xG 0.74–1.07 (41%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Bouwmeester14:48
xG 0.97–0.33 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Mikkelson10:37
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano3:30
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:24
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:09
xG 0.95–0.64 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Frolov – Stepan10:03
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Avery – Boogaard – Christensen3:48
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto14:05
xG 0.92–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi16:18
xG 1.20–1.08 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Sauer – Gilroy11:07
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).