Mon, Nov 22, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 17 | 011 | 230 |
| OTT | 18 | 17 | 14 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00OTTAlex KovalevPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:17LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:52LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:04OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:19OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Alex Kovalev, Matt Carkner · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:19LAKRyan Smyth: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:19OTTChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:19OTTChris Campoli: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23LAKWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:02OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40OTTSergei Gonchar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:08OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:08LAKKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:50OTTJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43LAKWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:04OTTDavid Hale: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richardson – Lewis2:19
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll12:34
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Westgarth3:36
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Handzus – Simmonds – Clifford6:57
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Drewiske10:05
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty16:41
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Johnson14:39
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Michalek – Regin7:46
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek2:28
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Winchester3:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Kelly – Winchester3:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Carkner5:22
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Phillips – Campoli9:47
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hale – Campoli3:09
xG 0.00–0.07 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).