Mon, Nov 22, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 06 | 16 | 326 |
| FLA | 110 | 112 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07PITKris LetangPPAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:07PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 19:25FLACory StillmanAssists: Jason Garrison, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 6:47FLABryan McCabeAssists: David Booth, Bill Thomas · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:56PITChris ConnerGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:02FLAStephen Weiss: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 5:52PITEric Godard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:15FLAMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:58PITCraig Adams: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:53PITBrooks Orpik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:40PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:10FLAMichal Repik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:23PITTyler Kennedy: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Talbot – Malkin6:27
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Godard4:19
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:10
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:20
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Martin – Michalek11:42
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Orpik – Lovejoy2:13
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang13:19
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Weiss – Frolik8:56
xG 0.91–0.33 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Booth – Thomas – Matthias6:06
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins8:46
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Repik7:42
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison11:30
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- McCabe – Kulikov12:11
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Allen – Wideman12:24
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).