Tue, Nov 23, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 0, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 012 | 07 | 023 |
| PHX | 116 | 27 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:00PHXWojtek WolskiAssists: Lee Stempniak, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 17:07PHXLee StempniakPPAssists: Eric Belanger, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
- P3 13:45PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Derek Morris, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 19:09PHXLee StempniakAssists: Eric Belanger, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:15EDMShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min
- P2 7:55PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06EDMAndrew Cogliano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:15PHXScottie Upshall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Hall14:53
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Brule – Cogliano – Paajarvi2:04
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Gagner15:23
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Jones – Brule – Cogliano3:24
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Peckham14:36
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Whitney18:38
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
- Foster – Belle13:15
xG 0.03–0.49 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Stempniak – Wolski11:43
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Doan – Upshall – Korpikoski11:54
xG 0.50–0.36 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Bissonnette7:50
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:40
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Ekman-Larsson17:12
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Yonkman – Schlemko15:08
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle18:51
xG 0.78–1.07 (42%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).