Wed, Nov 24, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 114 | 111 | 338 |
| CAR | 06 | 019 | 27 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P2 1:01WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 4:04CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Ian White · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:05CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 12:07WSHBrooks LaichPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:51WSHJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:51CARTuomo Ruutu: Diving2 min
- P1 8:16WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:16CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:06WSHSemyon Varlamov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:19CARJamie McBain: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:36CARTuomo Ruutu: Charging2 min
- P2 0:36WSHBoyd Gordon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:18WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:55CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:46WSHJeff Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:48WSHJohn Erskine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:02
xG 1.08–0.49 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Johansson6:02
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Gordon – Fehr6:35
xG 0.23–0.64 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Bradley – Hendricks – Steckel7:06
xG 0.01–0.52 (2%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Schultz15:59
xG 0.98–0.90 (52%)attempts 15–24goals 1–0
- Erskine – Fahey8:33
xG 0.44–0.73 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:38
xG 0.87–1.25 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Ruutu – Skinner5:50
xG 0.77–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal6:06
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner3:53
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal5:36
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – McBain9:13
xG 1.19–0.42 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – White14:32
xG 1.10–0.54 (67%)attempts 29–17goals 1–0
- Corvo – Gleason13:01
xG 0.61–1.14 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).