Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Detroit Red Wings 1, Atlanta Thrashers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 011 | 012 | 133 |
| ATL | 211 | 219 | 18 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Eric Boulton, Jim Slater · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 11:59ATLAndrew LaddSHGWGAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 12:18DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Mike Modano, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 1:50ATLAnthony StewartPPAssists: Bryan Little, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 16:25ATLBryan LittleAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 14:19ATLDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:37ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:20ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52DETTomas Holmstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:57ATLRich Peverley: Interference2 min
- P3 13:22ATLZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:22DETDaniel Cleary: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:25DETPavel Datsyuk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:32
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Modano – Bertuzzi – Cleary12:43
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Eaves – Miller – Helm12:10
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Filppula – Franzen – Abdelkader10:18
xG 0.38–0.79 (32%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall14:13
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Lidstrom – Rafalski2:05
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson14:06
xG 0.15–0.65 (18%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors13:20
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane10:19
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater9:16
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov12:47
xG 0.28–0.44 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:53
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey15:50
xG 0.79–0.63 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian14:09
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).