Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 1, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 011 | 15 | 03 | 0 | 126 |
| NJD | 16 | 06 | 03 | 06 | 1 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Matthew Corrente · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 1:18CGYRene BourqueAssists: Mark Giordano, Curtis Glencross · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
- 2. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 3. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. NJD Mattias Tedenby stopped
- 5. CGY Brendan Morrison stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:49CGYBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:50NJDBrian Rolston: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:01CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P2 18:58NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 0:44CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Moss – Glencross5:16
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay15:56
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hagman – Bourque – Backlund7:02
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Morrison – Hagman – Backlund3:21
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano13:31
xG 0.42–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Regehr – Bouwmeester15:25
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Mikkelson15:57
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Mair – Pelley – Gionta3:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Pelley2:28
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Clarkson – Zajac2:32
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Tedenby10:28
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Volchenkov – Corrente12:44
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- White – Tallinder17:36
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene12:19
xG 0.08–0.62 (11%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).