Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 04 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 215 |
| NSH | 08 | 110 | 012 | 00 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:22NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Joel Ward, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Matt D'Agostini stopped
- 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly stopped
- 3. STL Brad Boyes stopped
- 4. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
- 5. STL Erik Johnson stopped
- 6. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 7. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 8. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
- 9. STL Andy McDonald scored
- 10. NSH Sergei Kostitsyn stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:13NSHKevin Klein: Interference2 min
- P1 10:15NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:54STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:20NSHShane O'Brien: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:20STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:34STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – D'Agostini – Berglund5:25
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Crombeen – Sobotka3:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen3:52
xG 0.03–0.24 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Winchester – D'Agostini – Berglund3:59
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Nikitin3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Nikitin5:06
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brewer – Johnson2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist11:28
xG 1.06–0.08 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo9:57
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Dumont – Erat – Goc8:49
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Wilson5:08
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson9:53
xG 0.90–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber16:57
xG 1.05–0.42 (72%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein14:53
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).