Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 112 | 38 | 628 |
| MIN | 06 | 13 | 07 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Braydon Coburn, Andreas Nodl · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 5:32PHIJeff CarterGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 14:49MINPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Brent Burns, John Madden · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:00PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 7:47PHIAndreas NodlSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 8:52PHIVille LeinoAssists: Daniel Brière, Andrej Meszaros · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 11:12PHIJody ShelleyAssists: Darroll Powe, Blair Betts · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:45PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:45MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:34MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:05PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:21MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 10:16MINBrad Staubitz: Holding2 min
- P2 12:35PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:10PHIBlair Betts: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux4:46
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:22
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Shelley – Betts – Zherdev2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk9:50
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:40
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Pronger – Carle16:44
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros3:10
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Staubitz – Kassian4:56
xG 0.26–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck11:58
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brunette – Havlat – Koivu5:36
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Madden – Havlat – Nystrom5:37
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns3:13
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Zanon – Falk14:00
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Burns – Barker12:27
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).