Thu, Nov 25, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 117 | 09 | 237 |
| EDM | 24 | 07 | 113 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Tom Gilbert, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 3:51EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Tom Gilbert, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 5:50COLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 3:04COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Brandon Yip, David Jones · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–2
- P3 19:31EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Martin Gerber · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:54EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:54COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:54COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P2 1:38EDMKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:21COLRyan Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:41EDMRyan Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:54COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:41COLMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Porter – Duchene13:50
xG 1.46–0.49 (75%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod3:59
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart10:06
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly7:15
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Shattenkirk7:04
xG 0.84–0.03 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hannan – Wilson3:50
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Quincey – Wilson5:22
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano10:44
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Stortini6:20
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall15:56
xG 1.06–1.30 (45%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi7:37
xG 0.38–0.68 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney2:08
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Smid16:32
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham15:38
xG 0.90–1.01 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).