Fri, Nov 26, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 121 | 011 | 012 | 144 |
| PIT | 014 | 120 | 16 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11OTTJesse WinchesterAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 10:19PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:05PITAlex GoligoskiPPGWGAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:08PITMatt Cooke: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:25OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01PITMike Rupp: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:25OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:47OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:47OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P3 8:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:45OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:45PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Foligno8:54
xG 0.97–0.15 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Shannon – Winchester3:40
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek10:41
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Regin12:06
xG 0.40–1.22 (25%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson13:36
xG 1.08–0.19 (85%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Hale – Campoli8:40
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips14:24
xG 0.38–1.46 (21%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby11:42
xG 1.28–0.46 (74%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:21
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot2:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin8:59
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang14:00
xG 1.39–0.49 (74%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek13:14
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy11:32
xG 0.14–1.41 (9%)attempts 4–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).