Fri, Nov 26, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 014 | 214 | 234 |
| MIN | 39 | 17 | 17 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22MINMarek ZidlickyAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:57MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 18:12MINMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 0:48MINNick SchultzAssists: Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 3:55NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 14:02MINMartin HavlatAssists: Matt Cullen, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 19:51NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:54MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02NSHJordin Tootoo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:06NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P3 2:56MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:43MINEric Nystrom: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:25MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:53MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:53NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Nystrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Erat – Goc10:35
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo5:33
xG 0.08–0.17 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Wilson3:47
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Wilson2:59
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – O'Brien7:27
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Franson4:52
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson2:34
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Havlat – Brodziak10:48
xG 0.84–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Brunette – Koivu – O'Sullivan10:07
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Madden – Miettinen – Clutterbuck9:37
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Earl – Staubitz7:48
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky11:48
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Schultz – Burns16:35
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Zanon – Barker3:39
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).