Fri, Nov 26, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 07 | 06 | 017 |
| WSH | 110 | 414 | 15 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:38WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Brian Fahey, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 6:52WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 8:56WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 11:21WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.23 xG0–5
- P3 14:46WSHTom PotiAssists: Matt Hendricks · Snap, 0.04 xG0–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:11TBLMattias Ohlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:59WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:05WSHJohn Erskine: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:11TBLMattias Ritola: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02TBLMattias Ohlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 15:37WSHMike Knuble: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:02TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:02WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:09WSHBrian Fahey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Malone – Moore – Purcell8:34
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:05
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Hall – Bergenheim – Thompson6:16
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ritola – Jones – Tyrell7:10
xG 0.06–0.18 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ohlund – Lundin13:15
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Clark – Hedman11:13
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman3:34
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Semin – Johansson7:42
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Steckel11:35
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:02
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Fehr8:49
xG 0.01–0.15 (8%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Fahey9:27
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Poti – Schultz15:43
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:21
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).