Fri, Nov 26, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 08 | 26 | 319 |
| FLA | 015 | 09 | 016 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Sean Avery, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 5:24NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Erik Christensen, Steve Eminger · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 14:25NYRBrandon PrustSHAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:54FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:00NYRSean Avery: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:24FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:52FLADarcy Hordichuk: Interference2 min
- P2 8:38NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50NYRDerek Stepan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:38FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:19NYRBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Dubinsky – Stepan9:00
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Avery – Prust – Anisimov2:28
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- White – Avery – Christensen3:17
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Callahan9:02
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy10:39
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto11:19
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:03
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik9:23
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Booth – Repik4:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner7:51
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Matthias5:47
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Weaver13:07
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Callahan – Kulikov13:08
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Ellerby10:45
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).