Sat, Nov 27, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 011 | 114 | 131 |
| PIT | 024 | 212 | 27 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:26PITArron AshamAssists: Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 12:20PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 9:12PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Paul Martin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 13:03CGYRene BourqueAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 19:23PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:14CGYBrendan Morrison: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:32CGYAnton Babchuk: Holding2 min
- P2 0:37PITZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:02CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:02PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57CGYOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:37PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:16CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:14CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:07PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Stajan – Glencross2:52
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Bourque – Backlund2:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Kostopoulos – Hagman8:00
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund7:19
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester15:11
xG 1.06–0.63 (63%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
- Staios – Giordano14:16
xG 0.08–0.44 (16%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Babchuk – Mikkelson10:57
xG 0.22–0.84 (20%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:48
xG 0.74–0.02 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Rupp7:20
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:56
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin7:35
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek10:57
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski11:17
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek2:00
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).