Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 017 | 111 | 136 |
| MTL | 120 | 27 | 06 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:41MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 12:26MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 16:46MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 18:47BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Jochen Hecht, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:32MTLMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
- P1 9:23BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min
- P1 12:32BUFSteve Montador: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:54BUFAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:47MTLMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:47BUFJochen Hecht: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:47BUFMike Weber: Charging2 min
- P2 3:40MTLBenoit Pouliot: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29MTLAlexandre Picard: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:36MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 19:54BUFCody McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:54BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:54MTLTravis Moen: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:54MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:54BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:54MTLMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:54MTLTravis Moen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:22BUFJason Pominville: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Stuart8:33
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis11:02
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- McCormick – Gerbe – Adam2:13
xG 0.02–0.02 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Adam2:10
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Weber9:43
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador17:31
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Sekera – Myers11:28
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn10:20
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller8:03
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Halpern – Lapierre – Pyatt6:40
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Moen – Cammalleri5:29
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban11:37
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek13:02
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Gill – Gorges13:39
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).