Sat, Nov 27, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 111 | 24 | 06 | 1 | 427 |
| TBL | 19 | 114 | 114 | 00 | 0 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 10:12TBLDana TyrellAssists: Mattias Ritola, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 12:22FLARadek DvorakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 3:08FLADmitry KulikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:31FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Mike Santorelli · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 13:15TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Chris Higgins stopped
- 2. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 3. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 4. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 5. FLA David Booth stopped
- 6. TBL Sean Bergenheim stopped
- 7. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
- 8. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:13TBLMattias Ohlund: Elbowing2 min
- P1 4:38FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:15FLADennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13TBLVictor Hedman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:50FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:26FLADarcy Hordichuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:22TBLPavel Kubina: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:11TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:23FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:20FLABryan McCabe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik10:54
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Reinprecht – Booth – Repik3:04
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins8:04
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stillman – Santorelli – Matthias6:20
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Garrison12:31
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Wideman – Ellerby9:33
xG 0.25–0.55 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- McCabe – Wideman2:55
xG 0.03–0.40 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Bergenheim – Purcell3:26
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos9:18
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell6:11
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Bergenheim – Thompson3:36
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman8:02
xG 0.61–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Ohlund – Lundin11:50
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kubina – Jones9:08
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).