Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 012 | 27 | 223 |
| STL | 013 | 114 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:49STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Patrik Berglund, Brad Winchester · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 1:05DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 5:30DALLoui ErikssonPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:32STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:32STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:32DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:32DALBrian Sutherby: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:31DALMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:51STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:05STLMatt D'Agostini: Interference2 min
- P2 12:41DALBrad Richards: Interference2 min
- P3 4:01STLAlexander Steen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell3:56
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish8:37
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal11:19
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:44
xG 0.13–0.99 (12%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Grossmann17:41
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley13:09
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen12:06
xG 0.43–0.81 (35%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Crombeen – Berglund8:08
xG 0.67–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes14:05
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini10:03
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Janssen – Porter – Sobotka2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo15:23
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 24–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Johnson17:05
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo4:55
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).