Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 6, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 28 | 38 | 625 |
| PHX | 17 | 215 | 112 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:40PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:37ANAJason BlakeAssists: Dan Sexton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:19PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:06PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Shane Doan, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 10:57ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 14:13ANABobby RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 6:39ANABrandon McMillanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 7:44ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 8:15ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
- P3 14:03PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:56PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P1 12:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P2 3:42ANAAndy Sutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:46ANALuca Sbisa: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09ANANick Bonino: Holding2 min
- P2 17:13ANAAndy Sutton: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P3 19:05PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:12
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 3–2
- Koivu – Blake – Sexton12:11
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Parros – Voros – Chipchura3:29
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Marchant – Bonino – McMillan7:08
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Fowler15:49
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 16–19goals 4–2
- Lydman – Sutton14:26
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lilja – Sbisa8:32
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Stempniak – Wolski10:44
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Bissonnette3:29
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Korpikoski8:02
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:19
xG 0.06–0.63 (9%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestYonkman – Schlemko10:22
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski15:21
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–3
- Morris – Yandle13:42
xG 0.47–0.91 (34%)attempts 15–14goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).