Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 4, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 17 | 112 | 432 |
| COL | 111 | 420 | 29 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01COLPaul StastnyAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Milan Hejduk · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:19MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:39MINMatt CullenPPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 2:45COLGreg MauldinAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 7:18COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Chris Stewart, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 7:50COLGreg MauldinAssists: Ryan Wilson, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P2 9:29COLKevin ShattenkirkGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 14:22MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 5:03COLDavid JonesAssists: Greg Mauldin, Ryan Wilson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 6:49COLMatt DucheneAssists: Greg Mauldin, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–7
- P3 13:58MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Martin Havlat, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:56MINBrad Staubitz: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34COLKevin Porter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P2 5:53MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:06MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:06COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:27MINBrad Staubitz: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:22COLJohn-Michael Liles: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 16:44MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:09COLRyan O'Byrne: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Havlat – Brodziak7:57
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Madden – Miettinen – Clutterbuck11:11
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Brunette – Koivu – O'Sullivan10:44
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Nystrom – Earl – Staubitz7:59
xG 0.23–0.74 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Falk4:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Barker – Falk7:16
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Zanon – Zidlicky16:00
xG 0.64–0.87 (42%)attempts 20–12goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Porter – Duchene2:41
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Stewart3:50
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Mauldin – McLeod – O'Reilly5:19
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Mauldin – Jones – Duchene2:56
xG 0.32–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Shattenkirk14:02
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- Hannan – Wilson10:36
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hannan – O'Byrne3:05
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).