Sun, Nov 28, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 08 | 110 | 229 |
| DET | 015 | 217 | 210 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:17CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Anton Stralman, Jan Hejda · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 10:12DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 10:26DETDarren HelmAssists: Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 0:52DETValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 18:29CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:01DETDaniel ClearyENAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:22CBJKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P1 17:41CBJAntoine Vermette: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:51DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P2 7:55DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:11CBJAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:35CBJFedor Tyutin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:37DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 3:24CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:11DETValtteri Filppula: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:28DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P3 17:17DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Voracek9:35
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Dorsett2:45
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Murray – Dorsett6:15
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Clark – Pahlsson – Murray2:12
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Tyutin11:35
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Commodore – Russell8:28
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Hejda – Stralman12:30
xG 0.71–1.15 (38%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg10:15
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm7:00
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Cleary – Hudler – Abdelkader6:24
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:11
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson9:30
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Salei – Kronwall11:09
xG 0.82–0.45 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart12:13
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).