Mon, Nov 29, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 214 | 07 | 327 |
| NYR | 08 | 16 | 012 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10PITMax TalbotAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:01PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 13:16PITChris ConnerAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 16:19NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:00NYRRyan Callahan: Interference2 min
- P1 18:18NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:05PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:19NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:19PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:34PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:13PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03NYRBrandon Prust: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Talbot – Malkin6:51
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby4:03
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:06
xG 0.67–0.63 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:17
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang14:41
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Orpik – Engelland2:10
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek14:03
xG 0.80–0.81 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Dubinsky – Callahan4:34
xG 0.75–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Avery – Boyle – Prust2:47
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Christensen – Stepan2:24
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust2:02
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Sauer13:02
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Del Zotto16:42
xG 0.94–0.89 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi14:46
xG 0.90–1.20 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).